“There were so many people killed just walking around this area. Mass demonstrations over the Kashmir issue and against the CAA are routinely organized within Pakistan, and Pakistani leaders have criticized Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tactics at international forums such as the UN General Assembly. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has thus far maintained a delicate balance between advancing the interests of his own ethnic group, the Oromo, and pushing for a more united Ethiopia. 2020 will be a pivotal year in Ethiopia. If peace talks fail, intensification of fighting could pose a serious threat to the Afghan government unless the US is willing to extend its military mission in the country. In central, eastern, and southern India, the ongoing Naxal-Maoist insurgency persistently threatens to subvert government authority and democratic processes in the region. Additionally, violent inter-party rivalries extend the schism between the numerous concurrent political ideologies which exist within the world’s largest democracy. Iranian officials, for their part, have voiced readiness to reiterate “any good will and constructive effort” (Guardian, 14 January 2020). To download real-time and historical data for a specific actor type or a specific actor, select the relevant actor type or actor in those categories and leave all other categories as they are. Still, the most serious and destabilizing acts of violence are perpetrated by local militias, recruited by or possibly partnered with either Jihadist organizations or domestic governments. In Hodeidah province, a different network of Emirati-backed militias under the umbrella of the National Resistance Forces (NRF) has emerged. At a press conference following the missile strikes on the Iraqi bases, the Commander of the IRGC aerospace division stood in front of the flags of six Iranian-backed armed groups: Lebanese Hezbollah, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units, Palestinian Hamas, Yemeni Ansar Allah, and the Fatemiyoun and Zainebiyoun brigades, both active in Syria. While its collapse in Nangarhar was a major setback, the group’s fighters remain active in Kunar and several other provinces. Government mismanagement and a worsening economic crisis has resulted in a popular protest movement against Lebanon’s political system and ruling elite. Outlook for 2020: Continued armed conflict, political instability and the spread of Ebola could trigger a major deterioration in the crisis in 2020. Tens of thousands of troops were moved into the region (India Today, 2 August 2019), political leaders were placed under house arrest (Al Jazeera, 17 August 2019), and severe communications restrictions were imposed. He stands by a memorial for them in Short Strand, east Belfast, Northern Ireland. Mexico is facing a deteriorating security situation and continues to experience unprecedented levels of criminal and drug-related violence. People living outside of their own ethnic zones, including a number of university students, have also faced increasing attacks. Her research interests include children in conflict, human rights in armed conflicts, and the protection of civilians in modern warfare. Danyal Kamal is the Research Manager for South Asia at ACLED. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s failure to adequately control the situation could jeopardize the Nobel Prize winner’s performance in the upcoming election, as many in Ethiopia have been pulled into societal fractures amid weak state control and the general deterioration of security nationwide. To download all ACLED data for the entire time period of coverage, simply click ‘export.’, To download all available ACLED data for a specific time period, enter a date range and click ‘export.’. Although the President is well-known for hyperbolic statements, there is evidence that far-right “armed militias are taking Trump’s Civil War tweets seriously” (Lawfare, 2 October 2019). Ethiopia’s struggles with ethnic federalism are not over. Duncairn Community Partnership (DCP), a cross-community organization committed to regenerating areas where segregation barriers exist in the predominantly Catholic, lower north Belfast area, receives funds to try and remove walls and build trust between the two communities. Melissa Pavlik is a Research Consultant at ACLED studying overarching trends of armed conflict across and within ACLED’s regions of study. After issuing warnings exhorting citizens to refrain from participating, Taliban forces launched several attacks on election rally sites and polling centers aimed at disrupting voting, resulting in dozens of reported fatalities (NPR, 28 September 2019). The government has been unable to destroy Boko Haram or end the local conflicts in the Middle Belt. Andrew Forsyth, a 31-year-old chef, has spent his whole life in Protestant, working-class areas of east Belfast and has lived in Cluan Place for eight years. Amidst the political uncertainty, and fearing a loss of cultural identity among a new centralization of power, at least two ethnic groups currently administered under Ethiopia’s Southern Nations, Nationalities, and People’s region are making bids for statehood. To determine which of the two file types to use, you should consider whether the data are being used to analyze patterns over time, types of violence, conflict between groups, or locations (which the default file type is best for), or to analyze actor types or specific actors. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. ACLED records the highest concentration of demonstrations in Lebanon’s major cities of Beirut, Sidon, and Tripoli. United States: Developed, democratic political system at risk of turning violent. The two countries are now engaged in their most serious confrontation in recent decades, though in the meantime both sides have signalled restraint (Los Angeles Times, 8 January 2020). INTRODUCTION. Political violence continued apace across the country, however. As the country gears up for its first national election with universal suffrage since the outbreak of civil war in 1992, the ability to provide safety and effective governance are key to ensuring the legitimacy of the government. State legislative assembly elections will be held in Delhi and Bihar. The rise of authoritarianism — and impunity — has generated significant public reaction in the form of mass protest movements, but it has also increased the level of violence imposed upon civilians and political competition. Meanwhile, the outcome of the Rajya Sabha elections will be important in determining the extent of the BJP’s influence in parliament. Conflict Prevention. From fatal fights on university campuses to serious armed conflict, political violence in Ethiopia has shifted from resistance against the regime to ethnic strife, including riots and clashes instigated by ethnic militias. Tensions first began to escalate in May 2018, when President Donald Trump announced the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), reinstating all sanctions that had been lifted as part of the nuclear accord. “A big part of what we do and how we bring change is about bringing people from either side of our community together, getting them to know one another and breaking down those mental barriers, because they’re the hardest barriers to break down.". Given Ghani’s narrow victory, the election might go to a second round as Afghanistan’s Electoral Complaints Commission continues to review thousands of complaints lodged by Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah and other presidential candidates (VOA, 26 December 2019). “What we cannot do is fund the physical removal of barriers nor fund the much-needed economic and social regeneration of interface areas following removal. In late 2018, five Bengali Hindus were reportedly killed by militants in Assam. While outright war is not likely, Egypt and other stakeholders could attempt to influence Ethiopia’s domestic politics by working with various ethnic groups in an attempt to sway future plans concerning the dam (BBC, 7 November 2019). Afghanistan: High risk of rising violence targeting civilians. She holds a PhD in International Relations and a master’s degree in Middle East and Central Asian Security from the University of St Andrews. Britain, France, and Germany have triggered a dispute resolution mechanism that could lead to the reinstatement of UN sanctions. A Christian pastor's kidnapping and execution by Boko Haram in January along with a spate of reported attacks on churches in recent years in northern Nigeria have led some Christians in … Your donation directly supported the critical reporting you rely on, the consistent reporting you believe in, and the deep reporting you want to ensure survives. Causes of Boko Haram Conflict in Nigeria Violent political instability is on the rise in the US. Al Shabaab is likely to renew attempts at de-legitimizing the Somali government through frequent attacks, and Somalia’s Gulf allies are equally likely to ramp up efforts at securing political sway ahead of the general election. The parties to this conflict are mainly Palestinian Arabs and Israeli Jews, and the territory […] Despite India’s ruling BJP having the freedom to campaign across J&K and contest unopposed by the state’s mainstream political establishment, independent candidates unexpectedly took 19 of 22 J&K districts at the polls (The Wire, 26 October 2019). The Afghan government will need to provide robust reintegration programs in order to reduce this risk. Related: What the UK's new power deal means in the DUP's Belfast heartland. CONFLICTS AND CAUSES OF CONFLICTS IN AFRICA. Somalia: High risk of Al Shabaab adapting to dominate and isolate a weak government. Al Shabaab has also demonstrated its continued ability to launch sophisticated attacks on well-guarded targets, such as in a recent cross-border attack on the Manda Bay airfield in Kenya that resulted in the death of an American service member and two defense contractors (AFRICOM, 5 January 2020). Two problems immediately stand out: the world is significantly more violent now than a decade ago, and today’s conflict forms are strongly localized — types of violence, agents, targets, and solutions are unique to their local context. “I don’t think it’s a good idea [to remove the walls], because you never know the minute something is going to be thrown over. The first conflict between the Houthis and anti-Houthi forces decreased in intensity as the UN-brokered Stockholm Agreement bore some fruit in 2019, leading to a dramatic decline in clashes and fatalities in and around the key port city of Hodeidah. But some hard-line unionists see the deal as a betrayal. The Arab-Israeli conflict is a contest over a particular territory. “Regrettably, ongoing political uncertainty means that progress is being hampered. The Jos crisis, book haram terrorist attacks are examples of the various religious crises that have plagued the country in recent times. “It’s so easy for things to turn. However, Iran could aim to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz or launch cyber attacks. Find coverage on the latest global news stories, photos, and videos with various religious beliefs in mind on NBCNews.com. A series of other incidents, including attacks on several oil tankers and two major Saudi oil facilities, have also been blamed on Iran. With fewer than 300 days until the vote, the US faces a real threat of serious political disorder. In east Belfast, Forsyth, the chef, said there is concern within both communities. Print the Page. If a direct conflict exists between the time that a final summative assessment must be completed and a student’s religious commitment, the student must contact the Registrar’s Office (exams@engineering.utoronto.ca) by November 20, 2020. Across these 10 cases, observers have often concentrated on active threats and acts of violence, and less so on the latent risks that may produce new agents, modalities, targets, and opportunities for violence. Start of conflict Conflict Continent Location Cumulative fatalities Fatalities in 2020 Fatalities in 2021 1978 Afghanistan conflict. At the same time, religious conflict may be used as a front for a hidden political agenda. In 2019, the world witnessed a drastic increase in violent disorder that assumed many forms: protests from Lebanon to Hong Kong and Iraq to Chile; geopolitical competition in Yemen and Syria; dominant insurgencies in Somalia and Afghanistan; a cartel-insurgency in Mexico; and a diffuse, adaptable militant threat across the Sahel. ACLED records the highest number of violent events involving the Taliban in the provinces of Helmand, Ghazni, and Kandahar, which also accounted for more than 25% of the total number of reported fatalities in 2019. As most demonstrations were held in provincial towns and working class areas, it suggested there may be an absence of a broad social base willing to push for radical change (Transatlantic Puzzle, 24 December 2019). STC-affiliated forces and pro-Hadi government forces signed the so-called Riyadh Agreement under the custody of Saudi Arabia in November. Each of the ethnic conflicts that erupted throughout the last 30 years were the result of multiple factors. “The U.S. Role in the Sunni-Shi’ite Conflict,” Accessed March 6, 2020. The World is a public radio program that crosses borders and time zones to bring home the stories that matter. Hayley Todd, 32, a care assistant, was visiting her mother in the house where she grew up in Short Strand. The events of this year will have a tremendous impact on the future of the country, raising the stakes for all involved. In Burkina Faso, the fight between militants and Koglweogo — including Mossi, Foulse, Gourmantché, and others depending on the region — is central to the current conflict, which is continuously mutating and fast becoming more brutal. Despite the BJP’s increased numbers in the Rajya Sabha post-2014, the opposition majority has hindered the BJP’s ability to pass controversial bills (Money Control, 1 January 2020). Naxal-Maoist conflict in Bihar, the historic violent political rivalry between the BJP and Trinamool Congress Party (TMC) in West Bengal, and retaliation against the unpopular CAA in Assam all present significant law and order challenges. The situation could then spiral into full-scale war. If a US-Taliban deal is reached, a further phased withdrawal of US and NATO forces in exchange for security guarantees by the Taliban is to be expected. The government has consistently failed to provide basic public services, such as electricity, water, waste management, and health care. Thompson said not long after moving to the area, she was punched in the face and her friend's arm was broken on one occasion by people from the other side. According to ACLED data, Al Shabaab is responsible for 44% of reported fatalities that occur during events in which civilians are directly targeted in Somalia. The president tasked the newly formed National Guard – composed of military and federal forces, as well as new recruits – with addressing the problem, thereby prolonging the formerly unsuccessful militarization of the security situation. It remains to be seen whether the ruling BJP will be willing or able to adopt a more pluralistic approach to address accumulating governance challenges. Nevertheless, as long as the different Yemeni sides to the war do not come to an agreement between themselves, physical violence will continue. Furthermore, strong opposition to the Indian government’s actions in J&K were reported across the country in the form of protests, violent demonstrations, and clashes with police forces. The only instance of excessive force used against peaceful protesters during ACLED’s pilot period was an event in August in Rhode Island, where a corrections officer drove his truck into protesters surrounding an ICE facility as part of a nationwide action (Washington Post, 16 August 2019) — pointing to how demonstrators organizing on this issue could be met with violence. Houthi forces, Hadi loyalists and pro-STC forces are targeted sporadically mainly through IED and suicide attacks in Aden, Abyan, and Marib governorates. Regional Overview: Europe 12-18 January 2020, Regional Overview: Middle East 19-25 January 2020, Explosive Developments: The Growing Threat of IEDs in Western Niger, Democracy Delayed: Parliamentary Elections and Insecurity in Mali, A Vicious Cycle: The Reactionary Nature of Militant Attacks in Burkina Faso and Mali, Heeding the Call: Sahelian militants answer Islamic State leader al-Baghdadi’s call to arms with a series of attacks in Niger, No Home Field Advantage: The Expansion of Boko Haram’s Activity Outside of Nigeria in 2019, JNIM: A Rising Threat to Stability in the Sahel, The New Normal: Continuity and Boko Haram’s Violence in North East Nigeria, Insecurity in Southwestern Burkina Faso in the Context of an Expanding Insurgency, Yemen’s Fractured South: ACLED’s Three-Part Series, Inside Ibb: A Hotbed of Infighting in Houthi-Controlled Yemen, How Houthi-Planted Mines are Killing Civilians in Yemen, Yemen’s Urban Battlegrounds: Violence and Politics in Sana’a, Aden, Ta’izz and Hodeidah, ACLED Methodology and Coding Decisions around the Yemen Civil War, The Border Campaign: Pakistan-India Border Violence and the Indian Elections, The Indian General Election 2019: A Final Recap, Securing Democracy: Electoral Violence in India, Blurring the Line of Control: How Indian Public Engagement has Shaped the Kashmir Conflict, Citizenship Row: India’s Controversial Citizenship Amendment Bill, 2016, ACLED Resources: Al Shabaab in Somalia and Kenya, Resilience: Al Shabaab Remains a Serious Threat, Not with a Whimper but with a Bang: Al Shabaab’s Resilience and International Efforts Against the Rebels, Continued Conflict: Updates on Iraq, Sri Lanka, and Somalia, Same Tune, New Key: Al Shabaab Adapts in the Face of Increased Military Pressure, War Drums: Rising Tensions Between the US and Iran, Call Unanswered: A Year of Protest in Iran, Borderline: Foreign Support and Spillover Conflicts in Iran’s Volatile Border Zones, The World According to the Taliban: New Data on Afghanistan, War of Attrition: A New Year of Violence in Afghanistan, Eastern Afghanistan: A Tale of Two Provinces, Fighting Bullets with Ballots: Afghanistan’s Chaotic Election, ACLED Methodology and Coding Decisions around the Conflict in Afghanistan, Bad Blood: Violence in Ethiopia Reveals the Strain of Ethno-Federalism under Prime Minister Abiy, Change and Continuity in Protests and Political Violence in PM Abiy’s Ethiopia, Assessing Political Violence & Demonstrations in the United States: ACLED Pilot Data & Preliminary Findings, Demonstrations in East Asia in 2020 Over China’s Mongolian Language Policy, CDT Spotlight: Demonstrations in Argentina, When Emerging Democracies Breed Violence: Sierra Leone 20 Years after the Civil War, The Wartime Transformation of AQAP in Yemen. 07-16-2020. Serious violence has yet to occur as a result of these relationships, but the political strain jeopardizes the future of an already fragile state. The events in J&K further soured India-Pakistan relations: in his speech at the UN General Assembly on 28 September 2019, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan criticized the Indian government’s perceived anti-Muslim agenda and alleged human rights violations in Kashmir. In this report, ACLED has chosen 10 conflicts that demonstrate how violent political disorder is evolving in places it has festered for decades — such as Afghanistan — as well as in relatively new spaces — such as the United States. Related: This tiny Northern Ireland town fears a Brexit hard border could stir more ‘Troubles’. It is these latent conflicts that tend to be ignored and poorly understood, but increased infiltration will make an enormous difference in how risk may move beyond the Sahel. Select the subjects you want to know more about on euronews.com Incidents like the retaliatory attack by the Sinaloa cartel following the arrest of El Chapo’s son raise fears that the cartels may appear stronger than the military (Time, 18 October 2019). Weeks of protests rallies held in Hawassa culminated in a successful referendum that determined Sidama as Ethiopia’s 10th semi-autonomous regional state. It divides countries. Leaders of the Wolayta ethnic group are making a similar bid. Since 2015, USIP has helped Syrian leaders resolve conflicts in their communities. The most significant development last year was the breakdown of the delicate balance between the STC and Hadi government forces in Aden, Abyan, and Shabwah governorates in August. The recent US-Iran conflict also has the potential to impact Iran’s domestic stability. Religious conflict has a long history and it characterizes several groups today. Data on political violence and protest activity in Latin America and the Caribbean will be published in February 2020, at which point ACLED will begin releasing weekly real-time data updates for the region. With minority groups in the US at increased risk of violence and intimidation, state-sanctioned targeting on the basis of nationality raises red flags. Paddy Harte, chairman of the International Fund for Ireland, said that their Peace Walls program works hard at the local level to break down mental barriers and stigma around walls. Braden Fuller is an Africa Researcher with ACLED. 2019 has registered a record number of homicides yet again, after 2017 and 2018 broke previous records: over 31,000 homicides were recorded nationwide over the past 12 months, and the government just released data indicating over 60,000 people have disappeared since 2006. “I think one day the walls will come down, but the way the current political climate is, it’s far too soon. To learn more, review our Cookie Policy. The US-based Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) said in October 2019 that it had recorded more than 100,000 fatalities, including 12,000 civilians killed in direct attacks. In February 2019, a Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) militant launched a suicide attack on India’s Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) in Pulwama district of J&K, reportedly killing at least 37 CRPF troopers. The number of demonstration events is also notably high in the northern Akkar governorate, where protests are typically less common than in other regions. Tension in the Kashmir region was again aggravated in August 2019, prior to the J&K Block Development Council (BDC) elections, when the Indian government issued a presidential order abrogating articles 370 and 35 A of the constitution, thereby revoking autonomy for J&K, India’s only Muslim-majority state. With the ever-present threat of another militant attack looming over J&K, and the Indian government’s stance on Pakistan as a militant safe haven (BBC, 1 May 2019), 2020 is expected to be a perilous year for the future of India-Pakistan relations. The crisis engulfing the Sahel region of North Africa continues to worsen, with interethnic violence increasing and jihadists extending their reach. © 2020 Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). As negotiations between the Taliban and the US continued, warring parties strived to gain leverage at the table by showing strength on the battlefield. 9. This move appears to have done little to quell the protests. Since the late 1960s, a bloody, 30-year guerrilla war was waged throughout Northern Ireland, leaving over 3,600 dead. “Since 2002, we’ve been inundated with bricks, stones, bottles, pipe bombs, shootings, and we just feel safe behind it.”. Therefore, Nigerian citizens are urged to understand and acknowledge each other and respect one another's religious views in order to prevent the country from falling. Somalia’s security partners in the fight against Al Shabaab made major efforts to degrade the group throughout the year. During the second year of Abiy’s term, ACLED has recorded clashes between ethnic militias and communal groups near the Oromo-Afar regional state borders, the Guji Oromo-Gedeo community border areas, the Amhara-Gumuz regional state borders, the Oromo-Benishangul Gumuz regional state borders, and the Oromo special zones in Amhara region, among others – resulting in the displacement of millions (Africa News, 13 May 2019). Party is entirely satisfied after negotiations ( Guardian, 28 December 2019 ) criticized by some for being exclusionary Muslims... About 1.3 million today an incompatibility, as unrest may intensify the this. 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